
CRISIS RESEARCH INSTITUTE,
OXFORD
Providing Analysis & Information on Crises Past, Present & Possible
Welcome to CRIOx
CRIOx
Current Crisis
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Aung San Suu Kyi's Myanmar was a flawed country, lionised by fellow travellers in the West who took it for Shangri-la. Nevertheless her replacement by one of the world's growing number of military industrial dictatorships from Egypt to China it-self is a very bad development but a sad symptom of the retreat of even flawed democracy in our times.
See the commentary by CRIOx's Director, Mark Almond, in The Telegraph (2nd Feb., 2021): Westerners need to get real about 'heroes of democracy' like Aung San Suu Kyi (telegraph.co.uk)
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The military coup in Myanmar against the Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Aung San Suu Kyi, has a far more serious victim than the tarnished if popular leader - the peoples of Burma. And it is not a unique case argues CRIOx's
MARK ALMOND: Tyrannies are on the march as democracy flounders | Daily Mail Online (2nd Feb., 2021)
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Taiwan's mix of a demo-cracy and successful market economy give it the credentials for state-hood, but preserving the reality of de facto indep-endence is more import-ant than provoking Beijing into a show of force to block a formal declaration of independence argues CRIOx Director, Mark Almond. See The Tele-graph (29th Jan., 2021):
Taiwan is wise to avoid antagonising Beijing (telegraph.co.uk)
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Alexei Navalany's has thrown down a gauntlet to President Putin by re- turning to Russia. His courage and mix of anti-corruption campaigning with Russian nationalism
- something neglected by Western media - poses a potent challenge to the Kremlin as Navalny can still get his message out via the internet. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (19th January, 2021): https:www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ 2021/01/19/alexei-navalny-may-yet-man-topple-putin/
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HSBC's long-running ad-campaign "We are not an island" uses John Donne's 'For Whom the Bell toll' subliminally to assure enlightened, Remain-minded British depositors that the bank is a global ethical brand. However, its conformity to Beijing's demands undercuts that ad-speak harshly. If customers begin to withdraw their cash, ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for HSBC. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (9th Dec., 2020): Why does HSBC not distance itself from the ruthless regime in Beijing? (telegraph.co.uk)
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Global free trade used to be the mantra of Western liberal democracies, but China has now led the establishment of the world's biggest free trade zone, dwarfing NAFTA and the EU. The one party state is setting the pace in globalism and the West is splitting as Australia, Japan and South Korea sign on to China's version. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (16th Nov., 2020): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/16/china-hasnt-let-covid-slow-march-global-power/
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Azerbaijan may be the winner on the ground in its war with Armenia, but Russia and Turkey have shown that they are the power brokers in the key Caucasus energy transit route as Vladimir Putin imposes yet another conflict settlement satis-factory to President Erdogan but without consulting the US or EU. Will Turkey's recent assertive role from Libya via Syria to the Caucasus calm down now? CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis in the The Telegraph (10th Nov., 2020): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/11/10/russia-turkeys-hard-power-caucasus-wake-up-call-west/
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Joe Biden has been declared the next US president by the media & world leaders including the UK's Boris Johnson have congratulated him even as Donald Trump refuses to accept defeat. Brexiteers are naive to think that the "Special Relationship" will go back to normal. Biden sees Brexit as Trumpism across the Atlantic, so the struggle goes on. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's comment in The Telegraph (6th Nov., 2020): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/11/06/biden-will-now-wage-war-brexit-british-outpost-trumpism/
The murderous rampage of an ethnic Albanian would-be jihadi in Vienna reminds us that jihad cannot be just for export from Europe.
The West has been naive from Afghanistan in the 1980s to Syria today in thinking that sponsoring Islamist violence against regimes it dislikes would purchase immunity from jihadi rage. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (3rd Nov., 2020): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/03/vienna-west-must-learn-no-violent-jihad-ends-us/
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The butchery of three defenceless worshippers in Nice cathedral ctould bring the years of tension between French society's traditions, both secular and Catholic, with an increasingly brutal Islamist fringe to a head. Preaching tolerance and integration has been rebuffed by force by a fanatic minority of France's 5 million Muslims who want to make them targets of reprisals. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary inthe Daily Mail (30th Oct., 2020):
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8895127/MARK-ALMOND-savagery-terror-attack-Nice-spark-new-race-war.html
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The drowning of four would-be migrants to the UK in the English Channel illustrated the criminal irresponsibility of those making money out of selling unsea-worthy craft to people with no sailing experience but the attempted hijacking of a Nigerian oil tanker by seven asylum-seeking stowaways on Sunday should be a wake-up call to Britain's navy which devotes so much more planning and money to global force projection than its basic task of defending Britain's shores. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (27th Oct., 2020): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/26/isle-wight-tanker-wake-up-call-navy-protect-britains-coasts/ (a longer text appeared in the print version, p.16)
The politicisation of US-UK trade talks by Democrats playing the 'Green Card' in the pres-idential election race might not do any harm to either economy but it could poison relations between two old allies with huge political and security implications. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (17th Sept., 2020): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/09/17/joe-biden-cannot-afford-sabotage-us-brexit-trade-deal/
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President Macron's 2nd visit to Beirut within a month reminds us how French Presidents have repeatedly used high-profile, high-risk media events to profile them-selves and their political visions. Edginess rather than the no-risk sterile staged-event common in Anglo-American politics gives these episodes from de Gaulle to Macron a resonance but the echo in real politics can be short. See CRIOx Direc-
tor Mark Almond's essay in The Critic (1st. Sept., 2020):
https://thecritic.co.uk/grace-under-pressure/
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Britain's Tories are in thrall to the cult of cost-cutting all public ex-penditure, forgetting that Adam Smith argued that defence was "more im-portant than opulence". See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's comment on how Labour is out-flanking the Tories on defence in The Telegraph (24th Aug., 2020): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/08/24/tory-bid-downsize-royal-navy-monstrous-political-error/
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The crisis in Belarus pits the ultimate post-Soviet macho male politician v. reluctant female. Is this power versus post-modernism? Won't power politics win out whoever wins. See https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8636775/MARK-ALMOND-analyses-turmoil-Belarus-following-election-Alexander-Lukashenko.html
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New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern has become a feminist power icon for her corona crisis-man- agement but Ardern's amen-corner overlooks her Trumpian underbelly playing to the politics of fear and allying with New Zealand First, the party which was the pre-quel to Trump's America First says CRIOx Direct-or Mark Almond. See "Jacinda Ardern is the untouchable matron of the new health order" The Telegraph (17th Aug 2020): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/08/17/jacinda-ardern-untouchable-matron-new-health-order/
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France's assertive role in the Mediterranean is in sharp contrast to Britain's passivity as the tensions over Turkey's energy exploration in Greek and Cypriot waters risks a clash with an emerging alliance between Paris, Athens & Cyprus. See CRIOx Director Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (13th Aug., 2020): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/13/dithering-britain-denial-eu-turkey-geopolitical-time-bomb/
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Angst about the Bomb prevents too many people admitting that nuclear deterrence has saved many times the human cost of Hiroshima? Not only did the USA and USSR back off from violent conflict despite deep antagonism but countries like India and Pakistan fought wars before they got the Bomb. Maybe we should give two cheers for nuclear proliferation despite the risks, argues CRIOx Director, Mark Almond in The Critic (6th Aug., 2020): https://thecritic.co.uk/two-cheers-for-nuclear-proliferation/
Lebanese might have thought their crisis-hit society had already hit rock-bottom before Tues-day's catastrophic ex-plosion wrecked much of Beirut. Sadly, Lebanon and the wider region face more turmoil as local militias and outside powers are set to fill the void. See the analysis by CRIOx Director, Mark Almond, "The Beirut explosion will cause shockwaves across the world" The Telegraph (5th August, 2020):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/05/beirut-explosion-will-cause-shockwaves-across-world/
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Is NATO about to go to war with itself in Libya? As "allies" like Turkey and France back opposing factions and fire rhetorical salvoes at each other, Russia and other states intervening in Libya can enjoy the Alliance's discomfiture. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis in The Critic (25th July, 2020): https://thecritic.co.uk/natos-at-war-with-itself/
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By crediting the Kremlin with occult powers to in-fluence British elections the UK's parliamentary intelligence and security committee underrates the commonsense and patriotism of the British public and overrates Mr Putin. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (21st July):https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/21/russian-report-proves-british-voters-sensible-kremlin-thinks/
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Does Britain have any more of a thought-through strategy towards China as as it scraps Huawei role in 5G and sends an aircraft carrier to Far East than it had for dealing with Covid-19? See the commentary by CRIOx Director Mark Almond in The Telegraph (14th July, 2020): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/14/britains-tough-new-stance-against-china-smoke-mirrors/
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Turkey's President Erdogan's decision to return Hagia Sophia in Istanbul to a mosque is more than just a rejection of Ataturk's secularism, it also signif-ies an abandonment of the foreign policy legacy of the Father of modern Turkey. See Mark Almond's commentary in The Critic (14th July, 2020):
https://thecritic.co.uk/erdogans-hagia-sophia-move/
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For many centuries Istanbul has been a meeting place of East and West. The double heritage of the city's greatest landmark, the Aya Sofya with both Byzantine Christian mosaics and Ottoman Muslim treasures was recognised by Ataturk's decision to make it a museum preserving both traditions in 1934. Now Turkey's decision to revoke the status of the country's greatest land-mark is a symbol of the country's turn against not only secularism but the West. President Erdogan is promoting an aggressive synthesis of Islamist jihad and neo-Ottoman Turkish nationalism which rejects Ataturk's renun-
ciation of revanchism. See CRIOX Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (10th July, 2020): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/10/making-hagia-sophia-mosque-political-slap-face-west/
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The stabbing rampage by a Libyan asylum-seeker in Reading is just the latest example of "blowback" from inter-vention in Libya in 2011 argues Mark Almond in the Daily Mail (23rd June, 2020):
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8448699/MARK-ALMOND-left-Libya-ruins-crucible-terror-come-haunt-us.html
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Einstein predicted that if World War III was fought with nuclear weapons, then World War IV would be fought with clubs and rocks. China and India have reversed that order of combat but not reduced the risk of nuclear war.
See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Daily Mail (20th June, 2020):https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8433623/MARK-ALMOND-fist-fight-Himalayas-spark-nuclear-war-engulfs-world.html
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China's new security law threatens not only a new crisis in Hong Kong but also to spark a new Cold War with the West. Will Hong Kong become to symbolise the clash between China and the West as West Berlin was a focal point of East-West rivalry down to 1989? See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in the Daily Mail (23rd May, 2020):
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8349209/MARK-ALMOND-Chinas-crackdown-Hong-Kong-start-new-cold-war.html
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The Macron-Merkel double-act does a double-shuffle to circum-vent the German Constit-utional Court's threat to Eurobonds but are they lighting the fuse on a timebomb that could split the EU North v. South?
See Criox Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (19th May, 2020):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/19/brussels-has-lit-fuse-time-bomb-set-split-north-south/
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As the European project proclaimed by Robert Schuman on 9th May, 1950, reaches the danger-age of seventy for Covid-19, CRIOx Direct-or, Mark Almond asks whether the Euro will survive the lockdowns and the German Constit-
utional Court's hint that a bailout of government- spending across the EU is not something German taxpayers can asked to pay for. See his article in
The Telegraph (7th May, 2020): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/07/coronavirus-may-cause-germany-trigger-next-eurocrisis/
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With oil prices back to the 1986 level will the world witness similar geopolitical fallout? Then the Saudis boosted oil production hugely to undercut the Soviet economy. Now the combination of its price war with Russia and US shale producers and the recession produced by Covid-19 lockdowns is putting The Kingdom where the Kremlin was thirty years ago. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (21st April, 2020): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/21/2020-oil-price-crash-could-bring-saudi-arabia-just-1986-crash/
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It looks like the global impact of the Covid-19 pandemic will change everything - except geo-politics. The blame-game between China and the USA is just one more symptom of the intensify-ing rivalry between Beijing and Washington. See the commentary, "We are heading for a game-changing confrontation between china and the West" in The Telegraph (2nd April, 2020) by CRIOx Director, Mark Almond:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/02/heading-game-changing-confrontation-china-west/
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CRIOX Director, Mark Almond, looks back to the "Spanish Flu" of 1918-19 when consider-
ing why global pandem-ics flummox futurology:
quadrangleconsultancy.com/blog
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Iraq increasingly resembles a failed state. The rise of Shiite militias and the growing violence against US-led forces in the country play into Iran's strategy to con-vert Iraq into a reliable strategic partner. With US forces leaving Afghanistan, Iraqis are psychologically prepar-ing for US withdrawal. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis in The Telegraph (12th March, 2020):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/12/irans-plot-force-trump-middle-east-proving-lethally-effective/
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As Turkey openly attacks Syrian forces, President Erdogan's encourage-ment to refugees from the war in Turkey to storm the EU's outer borders (Greece and Bulgaria) is a form of blackmail not a human- itarian gesture. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's opinion piece in The Daily Mail (3rd March, 2020): https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8067139/MARK-ALMOND-Crowds-migrants-Greek-border-Turkish-despots-cynical-ploy-detonate-chaos.html
Has the handling of the Corona virus crisis ex-posed the myth that China could achieve the prosperity of free market
societies without political and media freedom? See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (7th Feb., 2020):https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/07/chinas-struggle-contain-coronavirus-has-exploded-myth-prosperity/
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"Asian Affairs" has published CRIOx Direct-or, Mark Almond's view of "Trump versus Iran" in its February issue:
https://www.asianaffairs.in/magazine/trump-versus-iran/#.XjlaYDL7TIU
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President Trump's peace plan is bad news for Pal-estinians but the altern-ative could be worse. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's comment artice in the Telegraph (29th Jan., 2020):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/29/trumps-peace-plan-lesser-evils-facing-isolated-palestine/
Entrepreneurship and innovative thinking (plus access to startup capital)
has created a new echelon of global billion-aires, but the spat between the world's rich-est man, Jeff Bezos, and the world's richest despot reminds us that wealth is only secure if human rights and the rule of law for all are upheld. MbS could shakedown the Saudi mega-rich because he held power. Will his model be followed by others? Mark Almond considered the Achilles Heel of Western billion-aires in The Telegraph (23rd Jan., 2020):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/23/bezos-saudi-scandal-exposes-tech-billionaires-have-upendedgeopolitics/
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The revelation of the hack of Jeff Bezos's phone by the Saudi Crown Prince who taunted the victim with intimate details is more than a private scandal. It reveals the chaos of cyber warfare infecting relations between allies as well as foes. Western states need to think hard how to restrain wayward allies whom they need for reasons of Realpolitik but whose cynical ways are a threat to our states and citizens. CRIOx Director, Mark Almond, contributed an analysis to The Telegraph (22nd Jan., 2020):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/22/bezos-bots-cyber-espionage-fraying-world-order/
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The shooting down of an airliner with the loss of 176 civilian lives raises the question whether the state in Iran is a well-organised regime or a chaotic one posing more problems in a time of crisis than a ruthless but well-coordinated one would. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (12th Jan.):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/12/malfunctioning-iran-poses-ever-greater-threat-west/
President Trump seems to be offering Iran a version of the "tough love" approach which at least brought a pause in North Korean nuclear testing but will it work with Iran? See CRIOx Director Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (9th Jan., 2020):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/09/trumps-tough-love-approach-has-brought-phoney-calm-middle-east/
Does the "moderate" retaliation of Iran mean peace is at hand, or only that US-Iranian relations have returned to the their normal state of high tension? CRIOx Director, Mark Almond contributed his analysis to the Telegraph (8th January, 2020):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/08/threat-all-out-war-has-receded-now-still-long-way-peace/
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Will Iran now go for an atomic bomb and where will it find the compon-
ents? CRIOx Director, Mark Almond, assesses the risks and what Iran might do with a Bomb. See The Daily Mail (8th January, 2020):
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7862821/MARK-ALMOND-offers-chilling-prediction-Donald-Trumps-strike-backfire-us.html
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With all eyes on a war between the USA and Iran, are we losing sight of the risk of a Third Iraq War in thirty years?
CRIOx Director, Mark
Almond, assesses the crisis with Iraq in The Telegraph (6th Jan., 2020):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/06/third-war-west-iraq-real-looming-disaster/
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Fear of a new war in the Middle East following the US assassination of Qasem Soleimani raises the question how should America's allies react if they want to stop war. CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's argument in the Telegraph (3rd Jan., 2020):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2020/01/03/americas-allies-want-stop-war-iran-best-way-side-us/
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In his profile of Qasem Soleimani for the Daily Mail (4th Jan., 2020) CRIOx Director, Mark Almond, brings out how the USA's arch-enemy had also been its ally on the ground in Iraq against ISIS:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7850119/Qassem-Soleimanis-Donald-Trump-taunt-signed-death-warrant.html
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CRIOx Director, Mark Almond contributed a Comment to the Daily Express (4th Jan., 2020) on the implications of the US assassination of Qasem Soleimani for Iran's nuclear programme. Will Tehran go for the Bomb? https://www.pressreader.com/uk/daily-express/20200104/281633897163368
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Is NATO suffering a 70-
Year Itch? French Pres-ident Macron said that the Western Alliance is "brain dead". CRIOx's Director Mark Almond suggests how NATO can escape a "permanent vegetative state" in The Telegraph (4th Dec., 2019):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/04/summit-proved-macron-right-nato-brain-dead/
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Bolivia's President, Evo Morales, brought down catastrophe on himself by defying the will of the voters in the 2016 refer-
endum, but Western leftists have inflicted a body blow on themselves by refusing to recognise Morales' own goal. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in The Telegraph (11th Nov., 2019):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/11/fall-morales-body-blow-corbynista-lefts-utopian-delusions/
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In NATO's 70th year, the French President says the Alliance is nearing "brain death." Macron is right about NATO's problems but his cure could kill the trans-Atlantic defence system argues CRIOx Director Mark Almond in The Telegraph (7th Nov., 2019): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/07/macrons-nato-diagnosis-right-cure-dangerous-illusion/
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The grisly discovery of 39 dead bodies in a container truck in Essex raises the question whether border security and humanity can go hand in hand. CRIOx Director Mark Almond's argument is in The Daily Mail (24th Oct., 2019):
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7606755/Strong-borders-save-lives-argues-MARK-ALMOND.html
Has the time come for NATO to expel Turkey in view of its invasion of Syria and President Erdogan's charges of collusion with terrorism against his allies? See the argument by CRIOx Director, Mark Almond in The Daily Telegraph (17th Oct., 2019):
https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-daily-telegraph/20191017/281990379291477
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Has Donald Trump's go-ahead to Turkey to invade northern Syria set light to the fuse of wider conf even beyond the Middle East. See the analysis by CRIOx Director, Mark Almond, in The Daily Mail (10th Oct., 2019): https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7556195/MARK-ALMOND-Donald-Trumps-retreat-Syria-spark-global-conflict.html
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Donald Trump has broken so many taboos of US foreign policy that observers seem genuinely
shocked that the U.S. president has respected the tradition since 1919 of betraying the Kurds. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis in The Telegraph (7th Oct., 2019):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/07/betrayal-kurds-immoral-sadly-predictable/
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With all eyes on the risk of war between the USA and Iran, the growing tension between America and China in the Gulf is being overlooked. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis in The Telegraph (23rd Sept., 2019):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/23/americas-cold-war-china-could-spark-archduke-franz-ferdinand/
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Is Iran emboldened by Donald Trump's reluct-ance to use force in the Gulf? See the analysis by CRIOx Director, Mark Almond, in the Telegraph (19th Sept.):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/19/war-gulf-may-soon-forced-upon-us/
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John Bolton's rivals for Donald Trump's ear may be smiling at his fall, but it is Iran which feels it is on a roll. See CRIOx
Director, Mark Almond's article in The Telegraph
(12th Sept., 2019): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/12/irans-hardliners-will-delighted-trumps-move-sack-john-bolton/
Robert Mugabe has been written off too soon by complacent Western obit-uarists argues CRIOx Director Mark Almond in The Telegraph (6th Sept., 2019): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/06/western-obituaries-have-whitewashed-mugabes-curiously-celebrated/
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"Are we on the brink of a new Tiananmen Square horror?" CRIOx Director Mark Almond asks the dread question in the Daily Mail (14th Aug., 2019):
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7357783/Are-brink-new-Tiananmen-Square-horror.html
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Will Beijing use force to crush the protests in Hong Kong? Or are state media sabre-rattling to intimidate the protesters into backing down? See the analysis of CRIOx's Director Mark Almond:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/08/14/chinese-regime-may-brutal-cannot-simply-crush-hong-kong-protests/
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Britain's decision to join the US in providing naval vessels to convoy tankers in the Persian Gulf sees it split from other EU states but raises the stakes in any new confrontation with Iran. See CRIOx Direc-
tor, Mark Almond's commentary in the Daily Mail:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7324361/One-rash-act-Iranians-set-hell-loose-writes-Mark-Almond.html
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When South Korean air- craft intercepted Russian spy-planes off its eastern coast, Japan protested. It is not only the North Korean nuclear issue that threatens peace in East Asia. CRIOx's Mark Almond put Sino-Russian strategy in this complex context in The Telegraph (24th July, 2019):https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/24/south-korea-fires-russian-jets-vladimir-putin-xi-jinping-teaming/
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Is the worsening crisis in the Persian Gulf partly the result of a prestige- obsessed Royal Navy which prioritised aircraft carriers over frigates?Now the Royal Navy has not got enough escort vessels to protect UK trade. See CRIOx Direc-
tor Mark Almond's com-mentary in the Telegraph (20th July, 2019): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/20/brexit-myopia-fatal-lack-foresighthas-enabled-iran-put-britain/
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Is Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps trying to provoke a clash with the UK and USA? See the analysis of CRIOx Direc- tor, Mark Almond, in the Daily Mail (20th July):
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7266841/Blinkered-Iranian-bullies-close-igniting-suicidal-conflict-seizing-British-tanker.html
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Are Angela Merkel's shaking fits - Merkels-zittern as Germans call them - a psychsomatic symptom of her sense of Germany's paralysis as her long-drawn out twi-light drags on to 2021? See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's comment in The Daily Express (13th July, 2019): https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1152913/angela-merkel-resignation-health-german-chancellor
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The standoff between HMS Montrose and a swarm of IRG motor-boats harassing a BP tanker has brought the tensions between Iran and the Anglo-US forces in the Gulf to a new pitch. CRIOx Director, Mark Almond, offers his analysis in the Telegraph (11th July):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/11/irans-game-dare-high-seas-risks-full-blown-war-west/
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Sir Kim Darroch's resig-
nation as Britain's ambassador to Washing-ton isn't the end of the matter. The leaker has revealed a trans-Atlantic chasm and injected poison into Ango-US relations at a critical time. CRIOx Director, Mark Almond, argues that only discovering who was behind the leak can lance the boil in The Telegraph (10th July):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/10/whitehall-must-find-sneak-betrayed-sir-kim-darroch/
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It was not necessary to agree with Sir Kim Darroch's interpretation of the Trump Presidency in the leaked emails from the UK's ambassador to the USA to feel that the President's reaction was demeaning and that the leaker was intending to damage both Britain and America. See CRIOx's Mark Almond in debate with Patrick Flynn in the Telegraph (9th July):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/09/debate-should-kim-darroch-dismissed-post-us-ambassador/
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The growing tension between demonstrators in Hong Kong and Beijing as well as the dilemmas posed for Britain was the subject of CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary in the Daily Express (6th July, 2019):
https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1149913/china-britain-hong-kong-economy-resident-protests
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Donald Trump's brief step into North Korea marks the latest stage in the US President's up- ending of received wisdom about how to conduct international relations. CRIOx Director, Mark Almond contributed his analysis to The Telegraph (30th June, 2019):https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/06/30/donald-trumps-unsettling-fire-fury-should-not-blind-us-successes/
​
Political earthquake in Istanbul as Ekrem Imamoglu trounces AKP candidate. Is it too soon to write off President Erdogan? Yes says CRIOx's Mark Almond contributed his analysis to the Telegraph (24th June, 2019):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/24/turkeys-strongman-president-still-capable-causing-plenty-problems/
​
Julia Hartley-Brewer in-
terviewed CRIOx Director Mark Almond on the US-Iran on Talk Radio (7.21am, 18th June, 2019):https://talkradio.co.uk/radio/listen-again/1560835800#
​
"The West will struggle to contain the escalating crisis in the Gulf" was CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's view in the Daily Telegraph (15th June, 2019):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/14/west-will-struggle-contain-escalating-crisis-gulf/
​
In the Daily Mail (15th June, 2019), Mark Almond argued "The stakes could not be higher"following the attacks on 2 tankers in the Gulf of Oman:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7143771/MARK-ALMOND-says-weeks-oil-tanker-attacks-brought-Iran-tensions-new-level.html
​
Turkey's President has amazed world opinion with his harsh rhetoric towards New Zealand after the Christchurch
massacre. CRIOX's Mark Almond suggests that though their modern nationhood was born out of the same Gallipoli bloodletting, now Mr Erdogan is abandoning Ataturk's legacy of reconciliation with the ANZAC enemy of 1915. See "What's driving
President Erdogan's shameful exploitation of the New Zealand massacre?" in The Tele-
graph (20th March, 2019):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/03/20/driving-president-erdogans-shameful-exploitation-new-zealand/
​
India-Pakistan:
The clash between two nuclear-armed states is unprecedented. CRIOx Director Mark Almond argues that the history of antagonism between India and Pakistan makes the current crisis more dangerous even than the Cuban missile crisis. See "Nuclear Powers locked in a terrifying game of chicken" The Daily Mail (28th Feb., 2019): https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6753481/MARK-ALMOND-crisis-facing-world-Pakistan-downs-pair-Indian-jets.html
​
Is it a myth that two democracies have never gone to war? India and Pakistan are testing that hypothesis to destruction.
See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis in The Telegraph (28 Feb., 2019):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/27/hurtling-towards-war-india-pakistan-discovering-trouble-democracy/
​
Will the loss of its last territorial control in east Syria mean that ISIS will lose its appeal to radical Muslims disaffected with the West? CRIOx director, Mark Almond, argues that analogies with the failure of Nazi werewolves to terrify post 1945 Europe should not make us complacent. See "We may eradicate Isil's
territory but its ideology will live on" in The Telegraph (15th Feb., 2019):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/15/may-eradicate-isils-territory-ideology-will-live/
​
With both the USA and Russia withdrawing from the 1987 INF treaty, Mark Almond looks at the even more complex nuclear rivalries that face the world today compared with the bi-polar Cold War era. See his article in Daily Mail (2nd Feb., 2019):
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6659627/A-new-cold-war-No-far-scarier-writes-MARK-ALMOND.html
The consensus that a military coup would be a quick and neat solution to Venezuela's current crisis is simplistic and overlooks recent cases of military intervention in Egypt (2011 & 2013) and Zimbabwe (2017) which were widely celebrated but have since gone sour. CRIOx Director, Mark
Almond, argues that Venezuela needs a civilian solution in The Telegraph (30th Jan.,
2018): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/30/coup-will-not-fix-venezuelas-problems/
​
Emmanuel Macron was elected President of France in 2017 as an anti-politician. Like the equally 39 year old Louis-Napoleon Bona-
parte in France's first presidential election in 1848, Macron ran as a centrist populist decrying the established parties of Left and Right, but ruled as the CEO of the banks and property spec-
ulators. Bonapartism then, La France en Marche today. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's article in The Telegraph: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/04/macron-faces-waterloo-vapid-dream-centrist-populism-withers/
​
​
On 23rd November, 2018, the Daily Mail published a commentary on the UAE-Matthew Hedges Case by CRIOx
Director, Mark Almond:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6419901/UAE-buy-world-buy-silence-injustice-British-academic-spying.html
​
Is the UAE's Crown Prince competing with Saudi Arabia's MbS to see which Gulf reformer can antagonise its Western allies by flouting human rights? CRIOx Director, Mark Almond, analyses the power plays around the life sentence on Britain's Matthew Hedges for spying for the the Emirati's ally Britain in The Telegraph:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/22/uae-using-matthew-hedges-bargaining-chip-get-london-back-yemen/
​
After 13 years in power is Angela Merkel's polit-
ical journey turning into a road to nowhere as her legacy is a splintered party landscape leaving Germany ungovernable as her own Christian Democrats and their Social Democrat allies haemorrhage voters but no coherent alternative coalition is emerging. See Mark Almond's
commentary in The Tele-graph:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/10/29/angela-merkels-legacy-polarised-germany-now-verging-ungovernable/
President Trump's decision to scrap the 1987 INF treaty raises the spectre of an uncon- trolled arms race with Russia of a kind not seen since the early Cold War decades leading to the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis in The Daily Mail (22nd Oct., 2018):
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6301483/Russias-new-missiles-Donald-Trumps-chest-beating-make-fraught-situation-worse.html
​
As the Saudis sweat, Turkey is using Jamal Khashoggi's grisly fate to gain diplomatic advant-age vis-a-vis the USA as well as its Gulf rival, argues CRIOx Director, Mark Almond in The Telegraph (18th Oct., 2018):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/10/18/saudis-sweat-turkey-using-khashoggi-disappearance-play-power/
CRIOx Director Mark Almond argues that the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi is bringing the tensions within Sunni Islam into focus as Erdogan's Turkey is the standard-bearer of Islamic republicanism of the Muslim Brother-hood type while the Saudi monarchy champions the MB's enemies like Sisi's Egypt. See The Telegraph (10th Oct., 2018): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/10/10/spiralling-rivalry-turkey-saudi-arabia-could-set-alight-middle/
​
On 27th Sept. 2018, The Telegraph published CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary on the CDU rebellion against Angela Merkel's choice for chairman of their Bundestag group:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2018/09/27/demise-angela-merkel-signals-end-consensus-politics/
​
Following the RT interview with the two suspects in the Skripal Novichok poisoning case on 13th Sept., 2018, BBC Radio 5 Live's "Up All Night" interviewed CRIOx's Mark Almond about his interpretation of Boshirov & Petkov's
denial of involvement:
1.37am, 14th Sept., 2018
https://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/play/b0bhg5ry
(37 minutes from start)
​
The Sweden Democrats were left holding the balance of power after the country's general election on 9th September. CRIOx's Director, Mark Almond,
contributed his analysis of the latest increase in the populist right's influence in an EU member to the The Daily Mail (10th Sept., 2018):
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6149199/How-immigration-killed-Swedens-liberal-dream-violence-uncertainty-replaces-tolerance.html
​
"One trade war at a time, Mr President." Is Donald Trump ignoring the wise advice of Abraham Lincoln? For CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary "Trump risks creating an unholy 'axis of the sanctioned'" in the Daily Telegraph (13th August, 2018), see
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/13/trump-risks-creating-unholy-axis-sanctioned-turkey-iran-china/
​
Following the dismissal of Romania's anti-corruption prosecutor, Laura Kovesi, CRIOx Director, Mark Almond,
analysed why EU membership across East Europe had embedded corruption rather than combating it. See "The EU's richer members are paying the price for its Eastern states' endemic corruption" inThe Daily
Telegraph (26th July, 2018): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/26/eu-has-utterly-failed-deal-corruption-eastern-europe-no-wonder/
​
The furore after the US President Donald Trump's dissent from the consensus among the US political and intelligence establishment about the alleged interference by Russia in the 2016 elections in the USA is analysed by CRIOx Director Mark Almond in the Daily Mail (17th July, 2018) "Another Day, Another Hand-Grenade":
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5960845/Another-day-Trump-hand-grenade-says-MARK-ALMOND.html
​
Will Britain be more likely to crash out of the EU without a deal after Monday's dramatic events in Westminster?
CRIOX Director, Mark Almond suggested in the Daily Telegraph (9th July, 2018) that the EU's own divisions and divisive decision-making
process may make it more likely:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/09/eu-bitter-cacophony-conflicting-voices-may-cannot-rely-support/
​
Angela Merkel's woes recall Theresa May's - both premiers are at risk of losing office over how to deal with the EU and its challenge to national sovereignty over borders and the economy. See CRIOx Director Mark Almond's commentary
in The Daily Telegraph:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/06/28/struggling-strike-eu-deals-sinking-home-angela-merkel-new-theresa/
​
The Daily Telegraph (24th June, 2018) published an analysis of the likely impact of early results in the Turkish el-
ections suggesting Pre-
ident Erdogan had won a disputed re-election. For CRIOx Director Mark Almond's commentary: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2018/06/24/erdogan-may-chastened-wafer-thin-majority-wont-change-rules/
​
CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary on the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore "Peacemaker confounds his critics again" was published in The Sun (13
June, 2018):
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6514536/peacemaker-donald-trump-confounds-his-critics-again-after-historic-kim-jong-un-summit/
​
Syria's President Assad's combative interview in the Mail on Sunday (10th June, 2018) is the subject of analysis by CRIOx Director, Mark
Almond, who asks if the Syrian regime can be as successful at rebuilding the country as it has been at demolishing rebel strongholds:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5825199/Assad-shows-no-flicker-remorse-says-foreign-affairs-analyst-MARK-ALMOND.html
​
​
Mark Almond explored the politics behind Roman Abramovich's decision to halt funding for a new stadium for Chelsea after the delay in renewing the Russian oligarch's visa for the UK: "This isn't a hissy-fit - it's far more menacing" (Daily Mail, 1st June, 2018): www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5793017/MARK-ALMOND-Abramovichs-decision-drop-1bn-Chelsea-stadium-isnt-just-hissy-fit.html
​
CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary on the shooting dead by the Israeli Army of more than 50 Palestinians, "Yet Another Shattering Body Blow for Peace"
appeared in the Daily Mail (15th May, 2018):
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5729123/MARK-ALMOND-shattering-body-blow-peace-Israel-marks-70th-anniversary.html
​
CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary on the Israeli bombing of Iranian targets inside Syria, "We could be on the brink of a cataclys-mic Middle East war" was published in the Daily Mail (11th May, 2018):
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5715819/MARK-ALMOND-brink-cataclysmic-Middle-East-war-drag-Britain.html
​
Skripal Poisoning:
BBC World's "Impact" inter-viewed CRIOx Director, Mark
Almond, about the growing crisis with Russia following the
poisonings in Salisbury (14.20pm, 15th March, 2018):
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/n3ct3n02
Skripal Poisoning: BBC Radio 4 "Today" interviewed Mark Almond, CRIOx's Director, on Britain's spy expulsions and sanctioons against Russia and the possible fraying of solidarity among its allies and the need for conclusive proof of the origin of the nerve agent used to poison 3 people in Salisbury. (Interview 8.56am (15th March, 2018):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09tyzvx
Germany's new grand coalition does not mark the triumph of
consensus politics, but rather it
is the twilight of the German
Establishment's increasingly
unpopular vision for Europe as
well as German society. It also exposes how hollow Angela Merkel's reputation for popul-
arity and statesmanship really is. Germany's long-serving Chancellor has sacrificed principle and fiscal stability to
hold on to power - but that hold is less secure by the day. See CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's commentary, "Merkel's consesnsus politics fuels populism" in The Daily Telegraph (13th Feb., 2018):http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/13/angela-merkels-new-coalition-poisoned-chalice-could-destroy/
12th Feb., 2018: BBC Radio Wales "Good Morning Wales" interviewed CRIOx Director, Mark Almond, about the secur-
ity situation in Tunisia as tour-operator Thomas Cook restarts package holidays there for the first time since 38 tourists were masacred on the beach in Sousse in June, 2015. See:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09r3xn0#play
As part of its coverage of the
crisis in UK defence spending highlighted by the chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Nick Carter, the BBC News Channel inter-
vied CRIOx Director, Mark Almond at 12.30pm on 22nd January, 2018, for his views on
underinvestment in the British Army, overexpenditure on naval prestige projects like the two new aircraft carriers and the "worst case" scenario of con-flict with Russia either on the ground or in cyberspace.
For CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis of the implic-
ations of the failure of the so-called JAMAIKA coalition talks in Germany for Angela Merkel, her country and BREXIT, see his commentary in the Daily Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5102319/Why-Angela-Merkel-s-humiliation-Brexit-boost-need.html
Angela Merkel's Pyrrhic Victory
in the German general election
and the destabilising impact of the breakthrough of the
nationalist Alternative for Germany party are the subject of an analysis by CRIOx Director, Mark Almond in the
Daily Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4915796/German-election-earthquake-echoes-1930s-Mark-Almond.html
Following North Korea's missile
across Japan, CRIOx Director,
Mark Almond, wrote these anal-
yses for the Daily Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4834716/Is-Kim-plotting-revenge-Japan-s-war-crimes.html and
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4834706/How-does-West-neutralise-Kim-without-risking-world-war.html
What are the military options as
well as diplomatic possibilities as President Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong un ramp up their mutual threats? CRIOx Director Mark Almond lays out some of the choices in the Daily Mail (10th August, 2017):
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4776812/A-limited-strike-scale-invasion-pressure-China.html
For CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's argument that whatever the result of the con- stitutionl referendum inTurkey more crises will beset the country, see "Even if President Erdogan loses his referendum it won't stop Turkey's chaos" in The Telegraph (15th April, 2017):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/15/even-president-erdogan-loses-referendum-wont-stop-turkeys-slide/
For CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis of the rapidly rising tensions between North Korea and the USA as well as China's delicate position and the possibility that Kim Jong-un is prepared for what Israel nuclear planners call 'The Samson Option', see his commentary "In a deadly game of dare Kim Jong-un will take the suicide option" in The Daily Mail (15th April, 2017):
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4413342/In-deadly-game-dare-Kim-Jong-suicide.html
For CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis of the wider implications of Donald Trump's "Warning to the World" after his decision to launch a cruise missile attack on Syria on 7th April, 2017, see
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3285701/professor-mark-almond-us-missile-strikes-against-syria-were-donald-trumps-warning-to-the-world/
For Mark Almond's comments on Slovak "Russophilia" and the country's media on "The Daily" Monocle Radio (10.10pm, 30th March, 2017) go to the second item c.22.10pm :
https://monocle.com/radio/shows/the-monocle-daily/1404/play/
For Mark Almond's interview with BBC Radio Scotland's Gary Robertson on the terrorist crisis in Turkey go to 8.09" on his "Good Morning Scotland"
programme (3rd Jan. 2017):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0854q5f
After another terrorist massacre
on New Year's Eve in Istanbul,
CRIOx Director, Mark Almond,
analysed for the Telegraph (1st January, 2017) why a control-freak like President Erdogan cannot get a grip on Turkey's terrorism crisis even as he tightens his hold on power:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/01/stream-violence-turkey-shows-president-erdogan-control-freak/
With President Obama responding to Russia's alleged hacking of the emails of Hillary Clinton's closest associates by
expelling 35 Russian diplomats, Mark Almond scrutinised Theresa May's crackdown on links between her ministers and Russian oligarchs in the Mail on Sunday (1st January, 2017):
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4079140/PM-s-war-oligarchs-cosied-Cameron-Theresa-vows-ban-links-Vladimir-Putin-Tory-fundraising-events.html
Following the assassination of the Russian ambassador to Turkey by an off-duty policeman,the Daily Telegraph published CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis of its possible impact on Turkish-Russian relations but also on the strains between President Erdogan and his NATO allies:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/20/ankara-assassination-could-shake-west-does-turkey-russia/
On 29th October, 2016, The Sun published CRIOx Director Mark Almond's warning not to exaggerate the Russian threat to Nato even if Putin's armed forces and equipment outclasses Britain's shrinking army and badly spent procurement budget. See the article @ https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2073711/vladimir-putin-sends-330000-troops-eu-border-experts-reveal-threat/
For CRIOx Director Mark Almond's interview with Monocle 24 Radio about the longevity of Alexander Lukashenko as President of Belarus on 20th Oct. 2016 go to https://monocle.com/radio
For CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's discussion of US-Russian tensions with Michael
O'Hanlon of Brookings and Larry Johnson (ex-CIA) on RT's "Cross Talk" 14th Oct., 2016 (moderated by Peter Lavelle), go to
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsGg8e4vD6Q
For CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's warning "Turkey eyes a permanent break with the West" in The Daily Telegraph (18th July, 2016), see
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/17/turkeys-response-to-the-coup-could-herald-a-permanent-break-with/
For CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis of the role of President Erdogan's personality traits in the Turkish coup crisis, see "Narcissist Who Threatens Us All" in the Mail on Sunday (17th July, 2016):
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3693976/Narcissist-threatens-MARK-ALMOND-tells-Erdogan-seen-president-abuses-office-benefit-family-cronies.html
To listen to CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's interview on BBC Radio 5 Live about the
coup in progress in Turkey at 1am on 16th July, 2016, go to http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07krwg8
"Imagine a UK-sized meteorite crashing into the North Atlantic and you get a good idea of the impact of our ‘Out’ vote on the rest of the EU..." CRIOx's Director, Mark Almond, writes in the Mail on Sunday (26th June, 2016):
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3660341/MARK-ALMOND-writes-control-borders-EU-won-t-jihadis-know-it.html#ixzz4Cg0iC4JF
For CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's discussion of Paris as the home of tourism and terrorism over the last two centuries in The Mail on Sunday (15th Nov. 2015), see http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3319006/Twenty-years-bombs-guns-slaughter-MARK-ALMOND-asks-Paris-crucible-ISIS-terror.html
For CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis of how destabilising Turkey's newly-elected "stable" parliamentary majority could prove for its region, see his article "Erdogan victory threatens stability" in The Daily Telegraph (3rd Nov. 2015):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/11970963/Erdogans-victory-is-a-threat-to-Turkish-stability.html
For CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's article on Tony Blair's admission that the invasion of Iraq in 2003 helped spawn the ISIS threat today, see the Mail on Sunday (25th Oct. 2015): http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3288189/Damn-Tony-Blair-Iraq-ISIS-Fear-abroad-home-sins-hugely-respected-writer-issues-simple-devastating-verdict-former-PM.html
For CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analysis of Turkey after the Ankara bombings, "Is Erdogan Turning Turkey into the New Pakistan?" see The Daily Telegraph (12th Oct. 2015): http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/11926989/Is-Erdogan-turning-Turkey-into-the-new-Pakistan.html
"This is No Time for Schadenfreude" - for CRIOx Director Mark Almond's warning of the dangers posed by Germany's simultaneous mass migration crisis and the meltdown of its leading exporter, Volkswagen, see his article in The Mail on Sunday (27th Sept. 2015):
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3250535/This-no-time-schadenfreude.html
Greece: The Frontline of Putin's New Cold War
On 21st June, 2015, the Mail on Sunday published CRIOx Director, Mark's Almond's analysis of the relations between Vladimir Putin's vision of Orthodox Russia and the geopolitics of a possible Greek "Grexit" from the Euro. See
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3133035/Greece-line-Putin-s-new-cold-war-Grexit-looms-leading-historian-argues-imperialist-Russian-leader-sees-chance-swoop.html OR for a fuller version, see http://markalmondoxford.blogspot.co.uk/
Tunisia: Bardo Massacre
For CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's comments on the roots of Tunisian jihadi radicalism, see
"Terrorism and Tourism: the two faces of Tunisia" in The Daily Telegraph (19th March, 2015):
Fawning on the House of Saud
On 25th January, 2015, The Mail on Sunday published CRIOx Director, Mark Almond, critique of the British Establishment's fawning relationship with a Saudi regime increasingly in crisis. See
Turkey & ISIL
On 9th October, 2014, The Daily Telegraph published CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's article about Turkey's role in the ISIL crisis "The Turks won't do the West's dirty work":
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11148908/The-Turks-wont-do-the-Wests-dirty-work.htmltp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnewFor CRIOx Director, Mark Almond's analyses the problems posed by the West's dubious allies in the campaign against IS in Iraq & Syria in the Mail on Sunday (27th Sept. 2014):
Ukraine
CRIOx's Director Mark Almond discussed the ceasefire in Ukraine and the outlook for peace there against the backdrop of NATO-Russia tension with BBC Radio 4's Eddie Mair (5th Sept. 2014):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04g1drk
CRIOx's Director, Mark Almond, has been interviewed by the BBC Radio 4's "World at One" (29th Aug. 2014) on NATO and Ukraine - podcast wato_20140829-1453a - and BBC R4's "World Tonight" (12th Aug. 2014) on conflict in South-East Ukraine - http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04d4n8s
For the Director of CRIOx's contributions to the media debate US-EU sanctions on Russia over the Ukrainian crisis and the downing of MH17, see Mark Almond's articles in
The Mail on Sunday (21st July, 2014): http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2698574/Shame-Putin-push-wall-peril.html
&
The Daily Telegraph (31st July, 2014):
​
​
The Limits of Missile Defence - North Korea's
Shot across Japan was a
Serious Warning
Kim Jong un's latest flouting of the UN
Security Council's ban on missile tests by
North Korea revealed the gaps in the US-
promoted missile defence systems used by
allies like Japan as well as the USA itself.
For months as tensions with Pyongyang
have mounted, Western media have em-
phasised that America and her allies have
the ability to shoot down North Korean
missiles using Patriot and related-systems.
But on 29th August, 2017, North Korea
sent a missile across northern Japan and
into the Pacific Ocean. Japan's air raid
warnings went off but no anti-missile
defence system went into action.
By using a mobile launcher and an unex-
pected trajectory from a new launch site
near Pyongyang, North Korea blindsided
both Japanese and US systems.
Missile defence has worked in tests, but
then the defence team had coordinates of
a launch to help them. It is true that the
Iron Dome system used by Israel has
been effective against Hamas and Hez-
bollah rockets. But the Israelis only have
to defend against a constricted launch
area and they are only defending space
the size of Wales.
One reason why Iran's links with
Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon haunt
the Israeli planners is that mobile Iranian
launchers would give Hezbollah much
more flexibility in choosing launch sites
and trajectories for attacking Israel.
Japan's anti-missile defences are placed
to protect Tokyo and few strategic sites in
the southern half of the country. It is not
easy to redeploy them or to increase their
number quickly to counter a mobile North
Korean threat.
The disabling of the USS John McCain
put a second US Aegis class anti-missile
platform out of service and led to a ban
on others moving for the moment. This
leaves Japan and the US without mobile
counter-measures. Kim has shown the
gaps in Western missile defence.
Mark Almond (29th August, 2017)
Kim the Party-Pooper:
North Korea celebrates
4th July with an ICBM
Mark Almond (Oxford, 4th July, 2017)
It was predictable. The North Koreans always mark
an anniversary with fireworks. They're quite liberal
about it - happy to let one off for other states' big
days as much as their own. Before even the most
patriotic Americans had raised the Stars and Stripes
on Independence Day, let alone lit the fuse on any
fireworks of their own, Kim Jong-un had pressed
ignition sending a potentially nuclear armed whizz-
bang soaring into the sky.
Launching an ICBM to mark the USA's two hundred
and forty-first birthday was a typical Kim Jong-un
snub to the UN, China, Russia, Japan, and South
Korea as well as to Washington. Forbidden to engage
in missile tests by the UN Security Council, Kim has
shown that sanctions and threats don't impress him.
What kind of missile exactly was tested on 4th July is
still in dispute. Maybe the North Koreans are just
making empty boasts about its range.
It fell into the sea after flying around 600 miles. Did
it crash or was the flight aborted by Pyongyang once
it had tested what the Great Leader needed to know?
Whatever was the case the test firing made a big
splash but before openly flouting Japanese airspace?
The North Koreans like to be provocative but so far
they have kept their actions just short of acts of war.
Blood-curdling rhetoric spews out of Pyongyang but
its missiles have yet to violate another country's
territory if only by flying over it.
But by choosing America's birthday to test its most
advanced weapons-system by its own account, North
Korea has thrown down a gauntlet to Donald Trump.
The US President has repeatedly promised that he
would "not allow" Pyongyang to develop a workable
nuclear weapons system.
So far North Korea has tested nuclear weapons in
underground detonations. But it has not yet found a
way to weaponise whatever Bomb it has made. With-
out a missile capable of delivering Kim's Bomb it is
little more than a Samson Bomb - i.e. it can be used
to deter invasion of North Korea by threatening to
detonate static nuclear landmines in the path of any
US-South Korean army advancing north.
Suicide by nuclear self-immolation can hardlybe Kim
Jong-un's favoured strategy. He needs to develop a
warhead and a missile capable of deterring potential
invaders by threatening to strike their homelands,
especially their capital cities.
Seoul, Tokyo as well as Beijing are within range of
North Korea's conventional missiles, but until now
North Korea has had no plausible clim to be able to
strike at the US mainland even with a conventional
warhead.
If Kim Jong-un is approaching that stage now, then
Trump faces a dilemma. If his Administration lets
Pyongyang weaponise a missile with a nuclear war-
head, it will be humiliating for President Trump. It
will also embolden Washington's adversaries. But any
direct intervention to halt the North Korean nuclear
programme would almost certainly entail huge losses
on the Korean peninsula. It is likely that not only
South Korea and Japan would be - briefly - blitzed by
North Korea's conventional missiles, but even China
could face dangers.
President Trump has repeatedly looked to Beijing to
rein in Pyongyang, but Kim has defied the Chinese
as well as the Americans.
Since China and Russia sit astride North Korea's
economic lifeline, in theory they could strangle the
regime there with sanctions. But what incentive do
they have to risk becoming targets of an unpredict-
able regime at America's behest?
Some US strategists talk of offering China a deal: if
Beijing will throttle Pyongyang economically then
Washington should promise to withdraw its forces
from the united Korea which would follow the fall of
Kim Jong-un.
The problem is that the Chinese remember how in
1989 then President Bush promised the Soviet leader,
Mikhail Gorbachev, that NATO would not expand to
the east if the Kremlin permitted German unification.
NATO forces now sit five minutes flying time from
Putin's birthplace, St. Petersburg, and around 500
miles from Moscow itself.
Kim Jong-un is a disrespectful and dangerous next-
door neighbour for China, but he is not America. To
topple the North Korean regime and then be double-
crossed by Washington as so many Russians feel they
were after 1989 is hardly an attractive outcome for
the Chinese regime.
At the G-20 Summit, Donald Trump will try to
persuade Xi Xinping and Vladimr Putin to help him
find an effective way to curb North Korea short of
war. But the mood music in Washington is not help-
ful. Although Trump personally has signalled a will-
ingness to deal with the Chinese and Russian leaders,
in fact he even suggested talking directly to Kim, the
foreign policy establishment in Washington and its
Amen-corner in the mainstream media screeches
relentlessly about the Chinese and Russian threats as
well as delegitimising their governments, even if the
same Beltway insiders demand Chinese and Russian
cooperation against North Korea in almost the same
breath. The South China Sea and Crimea issues are
debatable and both Beijing and Moacow have cases
to answer but official Washington manages to con-
fuse these localised territorial disputes with what it
claims to be an existential threat from North Korea's
nuclear weapons programme.
Since US public opinion is conditioned to believe
that agreements with Beijing and Moscow can never
be legitimate because of the bad odour of the govern-
ments there, China and Russia can hardly rely on an
agreement with Trump to guarantee long-term US
adherence to a deal.
This 4th July, the record of how Washington reneged
on countless deals with Native Americans in the
country's first century, still haunt the birthday party,
for Americans with a memory at least. More recently,
the younger President Bush's withdrawal from the
Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty was a lesson in how far
US commitments can change if Washington thinks it
can gain an advantage by abandoning an agreement.
Kim Jong-un's gate-crashing of the Fourth of July is
a lesson in how the bad boy can cock a snook at a
superpower unless it is willing to initiate Armageddon
to smack him down because the only potential allies
in achieving a peaceful outcome regard the USA as
a rogue state in its own right even if they could do
without North Korea's potentially disastrous nuclear
antics.
-----------------------------------------------
Donald Trump on the High-
Wire: The US President's
Sudden Military & Diplomatic Summersaults explain what 'America First' means
President Trump's domestic base has been
unsettled by the last ten days' sudden about-
turns in foreign and military policy. The
outside world, too, has been left ueasy by the President's reversal of course from his
campaign rhetoric suggesting detente with
Russia's Vladimir Putin and even talks with
North Korea's Kim Jong-un.
Instead of bringing either of them to Mar-a-
Lago, it was the "rapist" of the U.S. economy
, the currency-manipulator-in-chief, Xi Jing-
ping of China, who was the first non-US ally
to get an invitation to the President's weekend retreat.
The Chinese President complacently accepted
his host's information over "the most delicious chocolate cake" that the US Navy had launch-
ed 59 cruise missiles at the Syrian airbase
from which Trump claimed President Assad
had authorised a chemical weapons attack.
But President Xi got an important concession
in return for China not joining Russia in
vetoing a UN Security Council resolution
demanding Syria comply with an investigation
which would open its military bases to foreign scrutiny. Trump dropped his threats of a trade
war.
That was the real meaning of 'America First':
if China prioritised dealing with the USA
over its partnership with Russia, for instance,
then Trump would tone down, even forget, his
barbs about unfair trade and currency manip-
ulation.
So far so good for China as well as Trump.
But the North Korean issue also haunted the
talks between Xi and Trump.
Mainstream American commentators like
Gordon S. Chang talk as though Beijing has
the whip hand over Pyongyang. Of course, the
Hermit Kingdom can only really trade through
China. Its sea-routes are vulnerable to the US
Navy. But even if it is true - and it probably is -
that much of the sophisticated guidance tech-
nology for North Korea's missiles as well some nuclear equipment have come via China, this smuggling may not now be approved by
President Xi's government. Corruption in
China is a limit on the power of the Politburo
as it was on that of the Emperors before them.
But the Chinese government is well-aware of
how suspicious the young Kim is towards them.
Both his uncle and his half-brother paid with
their lives for being seen as Beijing's men.
If the Chinese had hoped either to control the
youngKim through his uncle or replace him
with a more pliable brother those options are
now dead.
Recognising how ruthless Kim Jong-un is makes
the Chinese nervous. He has nowhere to run to
if his regime falls, so he has no incentive to
back down.
But if Trump is serious about ending the nuclear threat from North Korea, then China faces a
war on its doorstep. Pyongyang's missiles
can't reach the USA but the Forbidden City is
within range as, of course, are both Seoul and
Tokyo.
Kim has got his neighbours in the same bind
facing Just William's gang when Violet
Elizabeth Bott threatened "To scream and
scream until I am sick!" No-one wants to be
in the way of Kim's nuclear vomit however
much they want to be rid of him.
Only Trump is at a safe distance. Will he put
America first or listen to his allies and
biggest trading partner?
It is not only North Korea's fate that hangs in
the balance. Much of the world's productive
capacity and trade in white goods is at risk
from a conflict in north-east Asia.
A horrendous humn toll would follow the out-
break of hostilities on the Korean peninsula
but even Americans and Europeans would
not be immune to its economic consequences.
Once Donald Trump talked boldly about
talking to rivals even if nothing might come
of it. Maybe soon enough his deal-making
skills will be put on the line. Let's hope so for
all of our sakes.
Mark Almond 15th April, 2017
Trump & the CIA:
Who's Spooked by Whom?
Was the DNC hacked by Russian agents on behalf of
Donald Trump or was Donald Trump bugged by US
agents looking for evidence that his team were cats'
paws of the Kremlin?
The mainstream outlets of the US media - and the
bulk of left-leaning blogosphere - constantly repeat
that "all seventeen US intelligence agencies agree"
that Russia interfered in the US Presidential election.
No-one on CNN or Fox, let alone in the print media
seems to ask what role should "all seventeen US
intelligence agencies" have in investigating how
emails from John Podesta or the DNC came into the
public domain? When the ex-acting director of the
CIA, Mike Morrell, blandly admitted that both the
President of the United States and the President-elect
fell into the category of US citizens any intelligence
agency could "accidentally" collect and more import-
antly deliberately keep any covert surveillance about,
Charlie Rose was obviously awkward. This admission
did not fit the script that Trump could not possibly
have been wire-tapped/surveilled without a ruling by
the Fizer court.
So if POTUS and POTUS-elect are fair game when
their emails and phone calls are scoopped up the
NSA or GCHQ dragnets - as inevitably theirs like
everyone else's in the digidomain are - what about
the rest of the US citizenry?
More pertinently when it comes to the mantra about
"all seventeen intelligece agencies" agreeing on an
essentially domestic legal matter when it comes to
possible election fraud inside the USA, what reason
does US Naval intelligence, for instance, have to
engage in the kind of surveillance which would
enable it to come to an independent verdict on who
hacked the Democrats and why?
Of course, several of these agencies had no reason to
do so - or at least not in US law. So allowing that
"all seventeen US intelligence agencies" don't en-
gage in un-authorised and un-constitutional spying
what the drum-beat about their unanimity in the US
media means is simply saying to anyone with doubts
or queries: "You're outnumbered."
Maybe what they are saying is the case, but their way
of proving their case is logically weak. Believe us,
because of who we are is not a strong argument in a
democracy though the priesthod of a theocracy might
think it cuts the mustard.
Truth is determined by the consensus of the "deep
state". Any doubts about the existence of a US "deep
state" were out to rest when John Brennan, the head
of the CIA, made aun unprecedented appearance on
the BBC's flagship "Newsnight" to assure its Blairite
shill, Kirstie Wark, that there was no such thing as a
"deep state" in the USA.
"Never believe anything, until it has been officially
denied," Claud Cockburn suggested when asked to
comment on alleged official skullduggery.
Trump's counter-charges against Obama's appointees
in the intelligence agencies - expressed in typically
florid language about Nazi-style tactics - brought
deep tensions between the new president and the
deeply-embedded intelligence aparatus in Washington
D.C. BBC journalists like Katty Kay - who also can
be seen on Bloomberg and MSNBC polit-shows - saw
nothing constitutionally-odd about warning the new
President off tackling his nominal subordinates in
the intelligence community. Apparently, reporters
like these take for granted the authority and reach of
the US "deep state" so much that they warn anyone
off referring to it.
Trump broke that tabu. Whether it will break him
remains to be seen.
Post-Communist
States:
Short Histories
To help journalists and policy-makers understand the background to recurrent crises in the ex-Soviet Bloc and the Balkans, CRIOx is publishing a series of "Short Histories".
(Available in hard-copy and Kindle editions from Amazon.com.)
Out Now:
"The Post-Communist Baltic States:
A Short History"
by Mark Almond & Christine Stone
(Also from Lulu.com)
Already available:
"Post-Communist Georgia:
A Short History"
by Mark Almond & Christine Stone
Coming soon:
"Post-Communist Ukraine: A Short History"
by Mark Almond
and
"Post-Communist Moldova & Transnistria:
A Short History"
by Mark Almond & Christine Stone
and
"Post-Conflict Yugoslavia"
For more information,
contact criox.editor@aol.com
Research Themes
Post-Communist Conflicts: Ukraine
Frozen Conflicts: the Caucasus region
Crisis of Secularism: Turkey, Tunisia, Israel
To be informed when CRIOx's "Secular Turkey - A Short History" is published register your interest at criox.editor@aol.com
Regional Crises
Coming soon:
Ukraine: Bridge or Battleground between Russia and the West?
Xinjiang: Uighurs - Nationalism or Trans-National Terrorism?
"HIRAK"
Algeria in Crisis:
​
​
​
From Regime Without a Face
​
to Regime Without a Head
​
​
Mark Almond
​
To register your interest:
contact@criox.editor
or
criox.editor@aol.com
​
​
